Time series analysis: climate and respiratory events in Cundinamarca, Colombia, 2009 to 2018

Abstract

Abstract

Background: respiratory diseases register a significant increase in cases through each year's cold season, and environmental factors increase the risk of complications.

Objective: to identify the relationship between respiratory events and meteorological variables in prioritized municipalities of Cundinamarca.                                

Methods: an ecological study of time series for Chronic Obstructive Disease (COPD) and Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI), integrating information from the national surveillance system, national health records and meteorological data of minimum and maximum temperatures and, precipitation from 2009 to 2018. The analysis includes studying secularity through least squares, cyclical fluctuation (residue method), and seasonal and irregular variation (moving averages ratio).

Results: seasonal analysis shows that when precipitation is higher than the median (X2 of 4.077 with a p-value = 0.043), there was an increase in ARI, as well as when the minimum temperature is below its median (X2=29.63; p=<0.0000001).  It was found ARI cyclicality in 14 municipalities, between six months and two years and COPD in 2 municipalities with a cycle between one and three years, with a growing trend.

Conclusions: the time series allowed to establish a relationship between the climatic variables and the diseases of interest in public health, the increase in precipitation levels and the temperature decrease are considered risk factors for the rise in ARI cases.

Keywords: Time Series Studies, Respiratory Tract Diseases, Epidemiology, Climate, Temperature, Rain Measurement